Ed Rogers has his eye on you, Independent Voters! Better comb your hair.
I believe it is a given that he will not have the surge in turnout among youth voters and African Americans that he had in 2008. He must make up the difference among independents. According to the poll, conducted in battleground states in mid-March, President Obama won 57 percent of “swing independent” voters in 2008; but today, he is only at 44 percent among this group. It is safe to assume Obama will need at least 60 percent of independents like these to win in November.
And in 2012, Obama is more of a known commodity. In 2008, he had the advantage of being unknown, and therefore full of promise and potential. Those longing for promise and potential today have mostly given up on Obama. Even with Romney having had to run to the right during the last several months, he’s closer to these swing independents ideologically than Obama.