The Top 10 Reasons Why Ron Paul Is Still Running In The Republican Primary

Posted by & filed under 2012 Election, WTF?

ron_paul

And also why he is not running as an independent candidate.

10. Because he continues to keep winning the majority of delegates from state conventions
9. His supporters are so enthusiastic they’ve been called “almost a cult
8. He’s “exacting change” on the party by winning as many delegates as possible, potentially as bargaining power
7. He’s raking in a ton of campaign cash, more than any Independent candidate for president ever has
6. He’s “resolved to lose the 2012 election” if he makes a third party run – it would be impossible for him to beat Obama and Romney in a three way race
5. Ron Paul’s Revolution isn’t over yet
4. He’s going to strike a bargain for a Vice President spot on Romney’s ticket
3. The Paul Presidential campaign momentum and cash will seamlessly transfer to his son Rand Paul in 2016 and the Paul Dynasty will continue
2. He already tried the Third Party run for President thing– see: 1988
1. Because the GOP delegate math is so fuzzy, he can actually force a brokered convention

That last point is a big one, and if Paul does force a brokered convention it will be the first one since 1952 in either party. So, there’s precedent. Also related to that last point, Nate Silver at 538 does an excellent job breaking down the fuzzy GOP delegate math and distills the categories of delegates into this convenient chart:

The following represents an effort to sort the delegates into about a half-dozen categories. One could easily pick more categories or fewer. There are a number of states whose rules are ambiguous enough to qualify as borderline cases, and which could be placed into a different category than the one I have chosen. But this ought to give you some basic sense of how the math works.

GOP delegate math

GOP delegate math

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can click on the chart above to make it bigger, but we recommend clicking through to Nate Silver’s post and reading the entire thing to get all the context.

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